Personal Musings

This blog is intended to be just a jumble of thoughts that hit me and need not necessarily mean anything.

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Location: Kerala, India

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Saturday, February 11, 2017

Predation of researchers and their research potential



Before you continue, please read themotivation for writing this post: the article  written by Sambit Dash. As usual, nothing i say is against the author per se. Again, this is a topic i am not usually vocal about, but i thought i will share a few thoughts. I may be more wrong than right.
That's it for the disclaimer part.
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What is observed

It seems that there is now literature(Seethaathy,SG; Santhosh Kumar,JU;Hareesha,AS, 2016) to prove that Indians ace in publishing in predatory journals(a.k.a paid journals). We now have numbers as well. Over 51% of papers published in such journals of poor quality is by Indians. The short conclusion by the authors: publication pressure and lack of monitoring are the main culprits for this fall in quality. If numbers is all you want, there is one more older article(Gupta, BM; Dhawan,SM, 2008) that talks about publishing count and all. Here is a pdf presentation about status of science and technology research in India, presumably from 2013. This post is to break this myth that numbers matter much when it comes to quality.

Let me state up front that I am not going to bring data from publisher's sites. I am only going to use all information I have gathered from personal communication over the last 15 years with various people to present the ideas. So, sorry. No reference for data.

Whipping a tortoise won't make it run fast

In the good old days, researchers--the people who actually grind it out in the labs/field, collecting all the data with sheer hard work, and publishing it--never had to worry about where they published. Most people used to publish their research work according to their budget in places where they deemed fit according to their understanding. During those times, doing PhD under a good place under a a great guide/supervisor/mentor is all that mattered. This was also the time when teachers(lecturers, readers, professors) taught in class. Research scholars were self-motivated by default to do Ph D. There was no necessity to do research, and hence whatever research used to happen used to be of good quality. This was the era when the word of the guide was enough to award a Ph D degree, teaching professions didn't demand publication count, and people with M.Sc could work in pharma labs and still make a decent living.

Then, the Government of India(GoI), started having ideas. GoI suddenly thought that research in India is not that great. There were only a handful of universities that were having good research work. Naturally, someone wanted to know how good our researchers are doing.  Here enters the bureaucracy.

The easiest to way to say how good something is is by picking something quantitative and comparing based on that. So, the babus asked the question: how much research is happening in India. No one had any real clue about what is happening where. In fact, the way our universities worked was really simple: somehow get some money allocated, spend the money allocated, ask for more money. If you lived in any university environment in any part of India, chances are that you have absolutely no idea what work is happening in the rest of the university. If you knew some good work, it's because that work came in the news somewhere. In fact for some interdisciplinary research, it was not uncommon to have two scholars working in different departments publishing papers in the same field but not knowing about it till they bump into each other later outside the university. So, when people wanted to quantify, they just asked the question: how many papers have you published in international journals.

GoI suddenly gave people a magical formula: publish in an International journal and you get branded as good researchers. The more you publish, the better researcher you become. Probably, that wasn't enough of a motivation, but the babus fixed what to measure. This PIB Note(Reply to Rajya Sabha by Minister of Science and Technology, Shri S Jaipal Reddy) basically explains what they have been doing and what's wrong with the whole exercise.

Another enlightened mind thought that Indians are not publishing because they are not suitably motivated. So, they just made PhD mandatory for getting an professor post. You know the way things work in India. There were some loopholes left for some extremely important people without PhD to get a promotion because, as you guessed it, they have worked too much for the university and obviously we cant expect a veteran to register for a PhD degree now. Looking at the way things stood, they just made it mandatory for even Assistant Professor posts to be filled by only people with PhD. (I am consciously omitting the currently-doing-PhD-part for brevity).

Now, what does PhD and teaching posts have got to do with quality publications? If you thought that this question is weird, it's OK. You will be among the 99.9999% of the people who naturally map research publication with professors in some university lab(wearing a white coat surrounded by test tubes). No one, especially in India, knows that most people don't teach in some university after getting a PhD. Even rarer people have heard about companies where they do research. Yes, I am talking about commercial entities who actually recruit people to solve real problems given to them by industry. And, NO, most of their recruits are usually smart graduates or post-graduates or graduates with years of experience.Do they publish research papers? Yes. But companies are more interested in patents than in papers. Patents have commercial value, peer-reviewed technical articles/papers don't have (unless it's a market-research company which can sell white papers to make money.) Of course, the babus in the ministry didn't know that research happened in lots of places.

So, the accountants in the ministry rightly argued that to manufacture more papers, we need more factories. Obviously, as making new factories(aka universities) is tough, we will just stack more machinery(aka professors) in existing factories. Then it dawned on them that most machinery are just outdated and not making papers as they first thought. Obviously, replacing them with machinery that can mass produce papers will be anti-labour. So, it's enough to mandate that all new machinery will enter job after they produce a few papers, and they will get career progression only if they continue to produce papers. (My apologies, if I unknowingly hurt anyone by using the analogy of machines.)

Another event happened in the meantime. The sudden demand for Indian engineers in software industry flooded the education market. IT/ITeS industry was happy about recruiting any engineering graduate. When they still had shortage, they started recruiting any graduate. This naturally resulted in the huge demand for teaching faculty. Private colleges started to crop up every where. When a college crops up, it has to be staffed by qualified teachers. That means, the overall demand for qualified teachers started rising. Basically, the government realized that if all the staff in all the colleges were mandated to come up with papers if they had to get a job, obviously the number of publications will increase.

Their logic was undeniable. And, like the VIKI of Asimov's 'I, Robot', the babus started giving more and more focus to numbers.

Apples from Peach tree

The rules were changed to give researchers in universities more incentives to publish papers. OK, let me be a bit more frank and open here. All existing and aspiring teachers were given the ultimaum: get a PhD degree by publishing journal papers or you won't get a job or promotions. They might as well have said: publish or kill yourselves. Leaving the dramatizations aside, the babus started truly believing that a change of rule will change the results. The final table with numbers will magically change by this "smart" rule they introduced. (How I wish they were taught about "process for the sake of process" in their training years.)

To quote from the script of Kung Fu Panda(2008)
 Oogway[points at peach tree]: Look at this tree, Shifu. I cannot make it blossom when it suits me, nor make it bear fruit before its time. 
Shifu: But there are things we *can* control. [kicks the tree so that peaches fall] Shifu: I can control when the fruit will fall! [he slices a peach and throws the pit to the ground] Shifu: I can control where to plant the seed! That is no illusion, Master! Oogway: Ah, yes. But no matter what you do, that seed will grow to be a peach tree. You may wish for an apple or an orange, but you will get a peach. 
The Shifu in the decision-making bodies think that quantity and quality of publications will magically improve because they are in control. But the truth is: you can't get apple from a peach tree. The good publications aren't going to come because the new rules demand publications.

Predators, please eat us

Publication count became important. The babus wanted an accounting entry. So, naturally, people started asking ways to mark the check box in this new laundry list. So, people started asking: how do we publish research papers.

It so happens that to publish a research paper, you need to have data. And, making authentic data takes time. But, unfortunately, in the mad rush to complete the course, meet family commitments, check answer scripts, do office politics to get the next increment, and umpteen other issues, the only thing that a typical researcher doesn't have is time.

Obviously, can't these teachers call some students and get some experimental work done by the students.

No. The students that we have in our classes are practically good for nothing. We never teach them creative thinking or problem evaluation in our written exam focused education system. Unless, you are going to spend time monitoring them, they can't think themselves to do the research work. And, time is what the researcher doesn't have.

The people who genuinely wanted to do research and get publications suddenly encountered a practical difficulty. Necessity is the mother of inventions. Indians invented International Journals. Not exactly invented, but they figured out that the system can be gamed.

"Babus, you want numbers. We will give you numbers," screamed the forced researcher. The enterprising among them spread the word that they know a journal in which publication is easy. No one will reject their paper because of grammar, or of technical rigor.    

More than predatory journals coming to India, the Indian forced researcher tried to get "International" journal started to cater to their needs. The cash-strapped private universities were not far behind. They suddenly found a new income source. Of course, if the Cambridges and MITs can have their own press, why not a poor Indian university.

Straw and the Camel's back

The job of a teaching faculty is to teach student. On top of that, they do the administrative work that the organization will naturally expect from them. And, there is going to be the hundreds of audits that they have to answer to. Probably, they have to spend more time doing paper work than interacting with students. And they have to spend more time monitoring the paper work than they would have spend making those papers in the first place. And, of course, they have to come up with quality publication; nothing less than a SCI-indexed journal.

All this has to be done with no time, no money and absolutely no motivation other than the sharp animal instinct of survival.

The problem with quality research is that it takes a lot of money. To do an experiment, you need quality equipment. If someone tells that there are free tools available, all i can retort is: just because they don't charge fees, would you send your own child to a government school. On top of the resources, we need an environment conducive of research. And, then there is the requirement of free time and a quality support team.

Without these, no amount of rules is going to change anything.

If the higher powers think that they would accept only publications meeting certain metrics, our compelled researchers are smart enough to get a journal meeting those metrics but with relaxed entry criteria.

All that has happened so far is adding one straw at a time atop the camel.

Is there a cure?   

I am among those who strongly believe that no one has the right to complain unless they can also suggest one plausible solution.

Let me first start with the toughest one. We need desperate reforms in our school education. There is already a shift towards outcome based education. Now, we need to change our school system to allow students to learn one skill at a time and move one. Ideally, we should have a set of exams where individual skills are tested, like can student add any two numbers, can a student interpret a graph, can a student identify the correct spelling of words, does the student have a vocabulary of N number of words, etc. The new test system must have provisions to check creativity, problem solving skills, ethics. Most importantly, respect the bell curve. India is a large country. Not all students are going to be good in all the subjects/skills. Some are going to be way above average, some shall be below average. 100% pass is as good as 100% failure. If a student got 100/100 marks, the test is broken.

Stop gobble up and vomit type questions in examinations. None of us are going to know everything when we go to work. There are many things we learn as we work, there are many things that even a person with 30-35 years experience doesn't know. Not all students can memorize tonnes of literature, and most of them are doing well when the have grown up. Once we stop this type of question, we can evaluate students based on their ability to respond to situations.

Start having separate research and teaching posts. Those in research posts can concentrate on guiding project students, students doing MS by Research(we desperately need this degree in every university department). Let those in teaching post be only judged by their teaching, and not by their research.

Change the funding method. The acceptance ratios in good conferences and journals is pretty low. Researchers must be motivated to take risks if they have to perform high quality research work. I am seriously for cheap loans for research and publication-based funding. Basically, let the researcher submit a proposal. If it sounds good(only to eliminate the obviously fake research proposals), give them an  interest concession coupon they can show to a bank. Let the people take loan and do research. Depending on where the work is published, the whole or a part of the loan can be paid by GoI. More than a large grant, most real researchers want working capital, and an assurance that they will at least get back the money they spend. Even those working with government funding roll most of the project money. Money for first project usually comes only when second project is about to get over. The fear of some bill that might get rejected will most likely be ruining their sleep. Even a separate Non banking finance company for the sole purpose of granting research loans is going to be great. Alternatively, GoI could mandate all companies to put some money from their Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR) for underwriting such research. Trust me, many such loans will be defaulted. Researchers don't talk about the hundreds of times they failed. All they can write in their resume is the few times they succeeded.

Predation of researchers and their research potential

To conclude, let's not talk about the quantity or quality of research in India. The average researcher lacks basic resources, adequate funding and time, due to the way we have chosen to measure research. The predatory journals exist because our government policy had created a large market(an estimated Rs. 600 crore market according to some). The skewed policy has resulted in good research never happening. The large number of such papers getting published by mediocre researchers leads to a huge pressure on good researchers to publish in mediocre journals, which in turn promotes more people to publish in mediocre journals. "Publish or perish" is the norm in the world of research. Actually, not only are good researchers expected to publish but their work is also expected to get lots of citations. On top of such an international pressure, the normal researcher doesn't want the pressure of tonnes of junk publications by people forced to do research due to the GoI policy compulsions. Then there is the problem of huge skill deficit. We do not teach students to think because our question papers are meant to improve pass percentage, not testing creativity or problem solving skills. We publish less because our students are not taught to evaluate or create solutions. If we don't create the right kind of environment for research, predatory publications become the last resort to make ends meet. In War and Peace, it's said that the best general just allows the good captains to make the right decisions while making them believe that it was on order passed from above. The publish-or-perish culture is enough of a motivation for those on the top. For those who are not that good in research, it's better to use peer pressure to make them publish than to compel them to publish.


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The author is currently working as an Associate Professor in a reputed college. All opinions expressed are personal and in relation to the article published by Sambit Dash. None of the content expressed reflects the opinions of the author's current or previous employers.

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Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Some tips on Income tax

Some tips on Income tax
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(Disclaimer: these are only observations. Please consult a certified financial planner for professional advice.)
(This was posted by me on whatsapp as an instantaneous reaction to someone talking about ULIP to save taxes)

One of the common mistakes many of us (ppl in 10% and 20%) brackets do is to rush and invest over a few "tax saving" instruments without much thought. I am just listing a few things you should seriously consider.

Please note the two most important advices i have received:

Paying tax is better than wasting money on a bad financial instrument.
(For 10% bracket, you pay atmost 25000 rs. For 20% brakect, that is atmost 75k rs)

You should not put money anywhere unless you know all risks(even bank FD has risk), and you have a need for putting money there.

Real option for ppl like us:
1. Best option: get a home loan.
Principal part of home loan comes under section (u/s) 80. Upto 1.5 lakhs limit as of now.
Interest comes u/s 24. For home loans that we can afford, all interest is deductible.

You must get bank certificate in which they will clearly say the principal and loan part.

A decent home loan should cover most of your tax related needs.

Do not forget to insure the loan. The banks will add a small premium, but its worth spending.
(Personal exp: my home loan was in name of me and my father. When my father passed away, i could have got insurance co to pay rest of 6 lakh premium if i had insured by paying 300rs more a year)

2.
LIC term loans:
These are low ticket. If you dont have it, you must get this.
While picking a term plan:
Sum Assured should be at least 30-50 lakhs based on your needs.
Eg: if total monthly family expenditure is 32,000, SA should be atleast for
50 lakhs.
(For a 40 yr old, taking 25 yr term for 50L, premium is about 3500 rs)
 i name only LIC bcoz they are the biggest term insurer. In insurance business, the best one has most customers.

3.
Health Insurance:
A must.
Atleast get the health insurance from Vijaya Bank.
This is one investment where you can put money on one or more insurer.
For the second insurer, go for a health insurance player like Max Bupa, etc. All the good ones are private. Ask your nearby hospital about the insurers that provide cashless facility there. Then only buy. Always prefer family floater(only bachelors need to fall back on individual plan)
IMPORTANT: there is something called "top-up" plan in health insurance. The way this works: we pay money for all expenses beyond a limit, send the bill to insurer and get money refunded.
Ex:
If you have a base plan of 3L and you then go for a topup of 5L with a base of 2L; and god forbid something happened to you requiring a 6L surgery; your base plan can initially cover the 1st 3L. The remaining 3L has to be paid by you to hospital. The bill of this amount should be sent for processing claim in the topup plan. Money will be refunded by them. You can actually show the 6L bill, and ask for topup ppl to pay you 4L rs. You can then give 1L back to base plan.
Point to note: topup plan pays only those bills that cross the base limit.

And, due to this condition(only pay if a base is crossed and no cashless facility), they are going to be much cheaper.

4. PPF
If you dont have, please get one. This is the extra pension that you are saving up. Make sure you put at least 1000 rs in this.

Optionals based on need:
Rest of money should be put based on your age.
I am just listing some of the ones that make sense for ppl earning less than 10L.

Please note: asset allocation is crucial.
(Even though it wont save tax, do your usual gold purchase, bank FDs, etc)

(Important point: when i say risk, it only means that the earnings may not be best. You are going to lose money only when you do emergency sale. In emergency, there will be slight loss in everything.)


A) 5yr Bank FD: prefer putting this in 50,000 or 1L.
Lock in period is 5 yrs. If there is an emergency, you might end up breaking this.
Ideally, start a basic 5yr FD every year.
Risk: interest rate risk.

B) NSS, KVP etc.
Interest rate risk. Policy risk. Put money only if family compulsion is there.

Dont put money in the rest if you dont have atleast 1L in bank FDs(regular and 5yr ones)

C)
ULIP: generally discouraged by people.
Use this with full money on equity. If you are joining, go for atleast 20yrs.
Market risk.
Important: do not put debt component in ULIP if you already have liquid cash of 3L(spread in banks, including short FDs, gold)

D) ELSS:
General rule of thumb:
You can put upto 100-Age% of your free money on equity.
Ex: for a 35 yo, upto 65% of investment can be in equity.
Illustration
If you are 25 yo and earn 40k per month, and you spend 20,000 for household expenditure, 10,000 for personal spend+emergency kitty; you only have 10,000 to play with. At 25yrs, you can put upto 100-25=75% of this 10,000, ie, upto 7500 in equity. If you have a ULIP of 1000 per month, NPS with equity of 3k per year(equiv of 250/month), you can only put upto about 6000 on equity. For this person, i wont recommend anything more than 5k per month as SIP.

ELSS must be invested only as SIP. You may topup when you get unexpected money.

Important point with ELSS or any equity: benefits accrue only on very long term. You are holding for 15-20years or even upto your death.
ELSS makes money bcoz money is invested in top 500 cos in market. On an average, they will aim to make at least 10% operating margin over long term(10 yr time horizon). No matter how market reacts, these companies have to maintain a steady course bcoz owners get to eat kanji only if co make profit. Over any 15 yr period, equity will give returns of 10%.
Someone who started putting money from 1999 in ELSS would have made 17-24% over the 17 yr period(ELSS started in 99)

There are lots more. Its better to pay tax than invest on them(i would not have said KVP and NSS as well if i hadnt seen an attachment for it among baniyas)

For realistic advice on tax investments, read Monika Halan, editor of money section livemint.

http://www.livemint.com/money

Its wiser to lose a few thousand on tax than a few lakhs later on.

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